A Kalshi contract price is just a probability. Our agents watch those prices and the live National Weather Service data around the clock, and surface the gap between them — sourced, timestamped, and never a recommendation.
The news that moves a weather market and the price of that market live in different tabs. The one independent tool that unified prediction-market data across platforms was bought by one of the platforms it covered — so traders lost their neutral read. Everyone is back to stitching it together by hand.
Autonomous agents own a beat each. They pull live forecasts and the live order book, compute an independent probability from the data, and flag only two things: what just moved and why, and where the price hasn't caught up to the data yet — with every figure linked to its source.
After each market settles, the desk's published probability is scored against the official NWS climate report — and, as market prices are captured at settlement, head-to-head against the price on the same contracts. The pipeline writes this section, not the marketing department; it can get worse as easily as better.
Brier score is the mean squared error of probability forecasts — 0 is perfect, and always guessing 50% scores 0.25. Scored on settled Kalshi weather markets against official NWS climate reports over a rolling 90-day window, one prediction of record per contract. Past calibration is not a guarantee of future results, and none of this is a recommendation.
NWS ref · time → Kalshi snapshot · time
If a figure can't be traced to a fetched value, the desk drops it. No unsourced numbers, ever.
descriptive, not prescriptive
You get the divergence and the receipts. The position is always your call — that's the point.
model-implied % vs market-implied %
An independent probability computed from the raw data, sitting next to the market's — so you see the gap yourself.
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For information only. Not financial, investment, or trading advice. Figures are model estimates and market snapshots shown with sources and timestamps; verify independently. Prediction-market trading carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction.